The NFL is the most heavily bet sport in the United States and one of the most actively wagered competitions in the world. Every Sunday between September and February, billions of dollars flow through sportsbooks on point spreads, moneylines, totals, and player props — and the vast majority of that money comes from casual bettors who understand the basics well enough to place a bet but not well enough to place a smart one.
This guide is for the person who wants to go from “I know you can bet on football” to “I understand how to evaluate and place an informed NFL wager.” It covers the core bet types — moneylines, spreads, and totals — without assuming prior knowledge, and explains teasers, parlays, and the practical mechanics of placing your first bet.
NFL Moneyline Bets: Picking Outright Winners
The moneyline is the simplest NFL bet: pick the team you think will win, and if they win, you collect. No point spread, no margin of victory — just a straight-up winner. The odds reflect each team’s perceived probability of winning, with the favourite carrying a negative number and the underdog carrying a positive one.
A favourite at -200 means you need to stake 200 units to win 100 in profit. An underdog at +180 means a 100-unit stake wins 180 in profit. The asymmetry is intentional: because the favourite is more likely to win, the payout is smaller. Because the underdog is less likely to win, the payout is larger. Your job is to decide whether the odds accurately reflect the probability — and sometimes they do not.
Moneyline betting on the NFL is most interesting when the market perception diverges from reality. A team coming off a bad loss might see its moneyline drift because the public has overreacted to a single result. A team with a backup quarterback might be undervalued because the public does not realise the backup is genuinely capable. These perception gaps are where moneyline value exists, and they appear more frequently than the efficient-market theory would suggest.
The practical limitation of moneyline betting on heavy favourites is the risk-to-reward ratio. Backing a team at -350 means risking 350 units to win 100. If that team wins, you made a small profit on a large risk. If they lose — and NFL upsets happen regularly — you take a devastating loss that requires multiple future wins to recover. For this reason, most experienced NFL bettors reserve moneyline bets for underdogs or modest favourites, and use the point spread for heavier favourites.
Point Spreads: The Foundation of NFL Betting
The point spread is the heartbeat of NFL betting. It assigns a hypothetical point advantage to the underdog (or deficit to the favourite) that must be overcome for the bet to win. If the Kansas City Chiefs are -7.5, they need to win by eight or more points for a bet on them to cover. If their opponents are +7.5, they can lose by up to seven points and still cover the spread.
Spreads are set to attract roughly equal action on both sides, with both sides typically priced at -110 (or 1.91 in decimal). The bookmaker profits from the juice — the difference between what you risk and what you win — rather than from predicting the correct side. This means the spread is not the bookmaker’s prediction of the margin; it is the number that splits public opinion most evenly.
Understanding this distinction is crucial. A spread of -7 on a popular team might reflect the bookmaker’s expectation of a five-point win, with the extra two points added because the public is willing to back the popular side at an inflated number. This is where sharp bettors find value: they identify when the spread has been pushed beyond the true expected margin by public money and bet the other way.
Key numbers in NFL spreads are 3 and 7, because field goals (three points) and touchdowns plus extra points (seven points) are the most common scoring increments. More NFL games are decided by exactly three points than any other margin, so the difference between getting +2.5 and +3.5 — or -2.5 and -3.5 — is disproportionately important. A half-point around the number three changes the outcome of roughly 10% of NFL games. Paying attention to these key numbers and shopping for the best available line is one of the simplest and most effective NFL betting strategies.
Totals: Betting on the Combined Score
The totals market — also called the over/under — sets a line for the combined score of both teams, and you bet on whether the actual total will be higher (over) or lower (under). If the line is set at 47.5 and the game finishes 27-24 (51 total points), the over wins. If it finishes 17-13 (30 total points), the under wins.
Totals are influenced by offensive and defensive efficiency, pace of play, weather conditions, and the specific matchup between the two teams. A game between two pass-heavy offences playing indoors in a climate-controlled dome is likely to produce more points than a game between two run-heavy teams playing in December snow. The bookmaker accounts for all of these factors, but the public tends to overweight offensive reputation and underweight situational factors like weather, which can create value on the under in specific games.
Divisional matchups and rivalry games tend to produce lower-scoring affairs than the public expects, because teams within the same division face each other twice a year and defensive coaches have extensive film on the opposing offence. First meetings between teams from different conferences, by contrast, sometimes produce higher scoring because neither defence has a scheme specifically tailored to the opposition. These are subtle tendencies rather than iron laws, but over a full season they add up.
Teasers: Buying Points Across Multiple Games
A teaser is a type of parlay that lets you adjust the point spread in your favour on two or more selections. The most common NFL teaser is a six-point teaser, where each spread is moved six points in the direction you choose. If you like a team at -7.5 and another at +1.5, a six-point teaser turns those lines into -1.5 and +7.5 respectively. Both selections must cover their adjusted spreads for the teaser to win.
The trade-off is reduced odds. A standard two-team, six-point teaser typically pays around -110 to -120, which is significantly less than a two-team parlay at standard spreads. But the dramatically improved lines make each leg much more likely to win. A team that needs to cover -1.5 instead of -7.5 only needs to win by two rather than eight — a far easier proposition.
The most profitable teaser strategy in NFL betting is the “Wong teaser,” named after Stanford Wong who published the original analysis. The concept is to tease selections through the key numbers of 3 and 7. A favourite at -7.5 teased to -1.5 crosses both key numbers. An underdog at +1.5 teased to +7.5 does the same. Because so many NFL games are decided by three or seven points, crossing these numbers with your teaser dramatically increases the probability of covering. Two-team teasers through 3 and 7 on both legs have historically shown a positive expected value at standard -110 pricing, making them one of the few teaser structures that professional bettors regularly use.
Standard parlays — combining two or more selections at their unadjusted odds — are also available and popular in NFL betting. A two-team parlay roughly triples your money if both legs win, a three-team parlay pays around 6:1, and the payouts escalate from there. The mathematical reality is that parlays carry a higher house edge than individual bets because the bookmaker’s margin compounds across legs, but for bettors who have identified multiple value selections on the same slate, a small-unit parlay can be a reasonable way to combine those opinions.
How to Place Your First NFL Bet
The mechanics of placing an NFL bet are straightforward across all major sportsbooks. After creating an account and depositing funds, navigate to the NFL section, which will display the week’s upcoming games with their current lines. Tap or click on the selection you want — the spread, moneyline, or total — and it will appear in your bet slip. Enter your stake, review the potential payout displayed, and confirm the bet.
Before placing your first bet, there are a few practical considerations worth noting. Start with a small stake relative to your bankroll — 1-2% is the standard recommendation. Choose a market you understand: the moneyline is the simplest for a first bet because the outcome is binary (your team wins or loses), with no spread or total to worry about. Pick a game you have some knowledge of, even if that knowledge is just a general sense of which team is stronger. Your first bet does not need to be analytically rigorous — it needs to get you comfortable with the mechanics.
Line shopping — comparing the odds at multiple sportsbooks before placing your bet — is a habit worth developing from the very first wager. If one sportsbook has the spread at -3 and another at -2.5 on the same team, the -2.5 is the better bet. If one sportsbook has the moneyline at -150 and another at -140, the -140 is the better price. These differences seem trivial on a single bet but compound across hundreds of bets over a season. Maintaining accounts at three or four sportsbooks takes minimal effort and consistently improves your results.
Tracking your bets is the final habit to establish early. Record every bet — the game, the market, the odds, the stake, and the result. After 50 or 100 bets, review your performance. Are you profitable? Are certain bet types performing better than others? This data-driven approach separates bettors who improve over time from those who repeat the same mistakes indefinitely.
The First Bet Is Just That — the First
NFL betting rewards learning. The bettor who places their hundredth bet is meaningfully better than the bettor placing their first, not because they have unlocked a secret but because they have accumulated experience — with the markets, with the mechanics, and with themselves. Understanding how you react to losses, how you handle winning streaks, and where your analysis tends to be strongest takes time that no guide can shortcut.
Start small, start simple, and treat the early bets as education rather than income. The NFL season is 18 weeks of regular-season games plus the playoffs, which gives you roughly five months to develop your approach. The bankroll you start with matters less than the habits you build while using it. A bettor who bets responsibly, tracks results, and adjusts based on evidence will be in a stronger position by the playoffs than one who started with a larger bankroll and no discipline. The first bet is the beginning of a process. The process is what makes you better.
