Football is the only major sport where the draw is a frequent and legitimate outcome. In the Premier League, roughly 25% of matches end level. In Serie A, that figure occasionally climbs above 28%. For bettors who back a team to win, the draw is the invisible third competitor — the outcome that sits between your prediction and being outright wrong. Draw no bet and double chance are two markets designed specifically to address this problem, each offering a different level of protection at a different cost.
Both markets reduce your risk by expanding the set of outcomes that either return your stake or generate a profit. But they work differently, they are priced differently, and they suit different situations. Understanding when to use each — and when the protection is not worth the price — is a practical skill that improves your approach to match-result betting.
Draw No Bet: Stake Refunds on Level Finishes
Draw no bet is exactly what the name suggests. You back a team to win, and if the match draws, your stake is returned. You win if your team wins and you lose only if your team loses. The draw — which kills a standard match-result bet — is neutralised.
The odds on a draw no bet selection are lower than the equivalent match-result odds because the bookmaker is offering you insurance against the draw. If a team is priced at 2.20 to win the match outright, the draw no bet price on the same team might be 1.70 to 1.80. The difference reflects the probability of a draw: you are paying for the protection by accepting a shorter price.
Draw no bet is functionally equivalent to a 0.0 Asian handicap. If you back the home team on the draw no bet market, the result is identical to backing them at an Asian handicap of 0.0 — a win pays out, a loss loses, and a draw returns your stake. Some bookmakers offer both markets and the pricing should be nearly identical, though minor discrepancies occasionally appear and can be exploited by checking both.
The market is most valuable in matches where you have a strong opinion on which team is better but the draw probability is high enough to create meaningful risk. Derby matches, tight mid-table encounters, and fixtures where both teams are evenly matched on form are classic draw no bet scenarios. You believe Team A is the better side, but a draw would not surprise you. Rather than risk your entire stake on a three-way market where the draw might account for 28% of outcomes, you accept lower odds and eliminate that risk entirely.
Double Chance: Two Outcomes for the Price of One
Double chance takes the three-way match result market and collapses it into two-way combinations. You can bet on home win or draw (1X), away win or draw (X2), or home win or away win (12 — effectively “not a draw”). Your bet wins if either of the two outcomes you selected occurs. The broader coverage of outcomes means the odds are shorter, but the probability of winning is substantially higher.
The home-or-draw (1X) and away-or-draw (X2) options are the most commonly used double chance selections. Backing a strong home team on the 1X double chance means you win if they win and you win if the match draws. The only losing scenario is the home team losing outright. In a match where the home team has a 55% chance of winning and a 25% chance of drawing, the 1X double chance covers an 80% combined probability — but the odds will reflect this, typically sitting in the 1.25 to 1.45 range.
The not-a-draw (12) option is less commonly used but has its applications. In matches where you are confident one side will win but uncertain which one — a cup match between two evenly-matched sides where motivation is high on both sides — the 12 double chance eliminates only the draw. The odds are usually around 1.20 to 1.35, making it more suitable as a banker in an accumulator than as a standalone bet.
Double chance is particularly useful in leagues or competitions with high draw rates. If you are betting on a Serie A match where the historical draw rate is 28%, the 1X double chance on the home team might offer better expected value than the outright home win, because you are covering an outcome (the draw) that has a meaningfully high probability of occurring.
Draw No Bet Versus Double Chance: When to Use Which
The choice between draw no bet and double chance depends on two factors: how much you want to pay for protection, and which type of protection suits the situation.
Draw no bet is the cheaper option in terms of odds impact. You are only neutralising the draw (stake returned), not profiting from it. This means the draw no bet price is higher than the equivalent double chance price, because your coverage is narrower — a draw returns your money but does not make you money. Draw no bet is the right choice when you are moderately confident in the win but want insurance against the draw as a safety net.
Double chance is the more comprehensive option. A draw does not just return your stake — it pays out as a winner. This broader coverage means shorter odds, but the hit rate is substantially higher. Double chance is the right choice when you are less confident in the win but believe the team will at least avoid defeat. It is also the better option for accumulators, where a single losing leg destroys the entire bet and the premium for draw protection is justified by the compounding risk.
A practical framework: if the draw probability in a given match is below 22-23%, draw no bet is usually the better value because you are paying less for protection against a relatively unlikely outcome. If the draw probability exceeds 25%, double chance becomes more attractive because you are profiting from an outcome that has a meaningful chance of occurring. The threshold is not rigid — it depends on the specific odds offered — but it provides a starting point for deciding between the two markets.
Real Examples of Applying These Strategies
Consider a Serie A match between two mid-table sides where the home team is priced at 2.40 to win, the draw at 3.20, and the away win at 3.10. The implied draw probability is roughly 31% — high by any standard. The draw no bet on the home team is priced at 1.75 and the double chance (1X) at 1.40.
If you fancy the home team but acknowledge the draw is likely, the double chance at 1.40 covers you across both the win and draw — an 80% combined probability based on the implied odds. Your return is modest but your exposure to loss is limited to the away win scenario. If you are more confident in the home win and just want a safety net, draw no bet at 1.75 offers a better return when the team wins, with your stake returned in the draw scenario.
Now consider a Premier League match where a top-four side visits a relegation candidate. The favourite is priced at 1.50 to win, the draw at 4.50, and the home win at 6.50. The implied draw probability here is only about 22%. Draw no bet on the favourite might be 1.30, while the 1X double chance is 1.15. In this situation, the draw probability is low enough that the cost of protection is disproportionate to the risk. A straight win bet at 1.50 may be the better option, accepting the small draw risk in exchange for meaningfully better odds.
The Draw Is Not Your Enemy — It Is Your Variable
The deepest insight behind both these markets is that the draw is not a nuisance to be avoided at all costs — it is a variable to be priced and managed. In a three-way market, the draw represents dead money for anyone who backed a side to win. In draw no bet and double chance markets, the draw becomes something you can either neutralise (DNB) or profit from (double chance), depending on how much you are willing to pay.
The bettors who use these markets well are the ones who think about draw probability as a number rather than a feeling. They check the historical draw rate for the specific fixture type, compare it to the implied probability in the bookmaker’s pricing, and make a reasoned decision about whether the protection is worth the cost. That process takes two minutes and consistently produces better outcomes than the default approach of backing a team to win and hoping the draw does not happen.
